Q1 2026 Economic Outlook – Resilience through selectivity. VanEck
At the close of 2025, many markets looked fully priced, while gold and its miners continued to rally. Emerging markets, value and quality exposures, along with real assets, have provided ballast, while the Australian market has been led by materials. Looking forward, assessing the market’s mood and therefore prices has become difficult. Some prices are being set by greed, others are being set by fear. But if 2025 (and 2024) have taught investors anything, it is that trying to pick the top, or the bottom, is foolish. This quarter has underscored the value of resilience through selectivity and for the patient, pockets of value remain.
As we begin 2026, our latest global economic analysis explores the ingredients needed for a resilient portfolio and how to navigate the cross currents driving global and local markets – from the monetisation of AI and factor rotations to the outlook for gold.
J.P. Morgan – 1Q26 “Guide to the Markets – Australia”
| – AI and the disciplined investor |
| – The continuing rise of emerging markets |
| – Central banks and the end of coordinating cutting cycles |
| – Diversify the diversifierss |
Memos from Howard Marks – Is It a Bubble?
| In his latest memo, Howard Marks addresses the much-asked question, “Is there a bubble in AI?” He identifies the uncertainty associated with AI investments and the conspicuous parallels to previous bubbles, while also acknowledging why those comparisons could be inappropriate. Given AI’s vast potential but numerous unknowns, no one can say for certain whether investors’ current enthusiasm is merited or irrational. Thus, Howard emphasizes the importance of prudence and selectivity in navigating this transformative yet unpredictable technological revolution. Read More. |
Warren Buffett’s annual Thanksgiving letter for 2025—his final one to shareholders
Warren Buffett has officially signaled the end of an era. In a move that marks the closing chapter of his historic tenure, the 95-year-old Oracle of Omaha released a letter to Berkshire Hathaway shareholders that outlines his departure as CEO and the cessation of his legendary annual reports.
Buffett’s letter, dated November 10, confirms that his longtime lieutenant, Greg Abel, will assume the role of CEO at year-end. But the most poignant shift is in Buffett’s communication. For decades, his annual shareholder letters have been scripture for investors—a mix of folksy wisdom, financial acuity, and candor. Now, he says, that tradition is over.
Facing 2026, resilient, like The Future Fund
We expect global economic growth and rate cuts, but also inflationary pressures.
You may think that Australia’s largest institutional investor, The Future Fund, has a broader investment opportunity set than everyday Australian investors. Reading its most recent position paper, we don’t think that’s true. According to VanEck ETFs are a great way for investors to build portfolio resilience, as identified by the Future Fund. ETFs allow investors to access alternative approaches and exposures in the new world, just as institutional investors do.
2026 outlook: Economic upside, stock market downside. Vanguard
AI’s rapid evolution has increased its potential to become a transformative economic force, with promising implications for productivity across industries. Adoption is accelerating, and while today’s leaders dominate headlines, tomorrow’s winners may look very different. The 2026 Vanguard economic and market outlook (VEMO) delves into potential implications.
2025 reflections and the outlook ahead. AllianceBernstein
AllianceBersnstein global investment experts have prepared a special End-of-Year Video to share their perspectives on the key themes shaping global markets and what to watch as we head into 2026.
This short update features Kent Hargis, CIO—Strategic Core Equities, John Taylor, Head—European Fixed Income; Director—Global Multi-Sector, and Hamish FitzSimons, CIO—Australian Equities, as they address the following:
- Reflections on the past year’s market drivers
- Insights into opportunities and risks across asset classes
- Guidance on positioning portfolios for the year ahead
Bell Potter’s top stock picks for 2026
Global markets endured a wild ride in 2025, with the acceleration and deceleration of geopolitical tensions shifting investor sentiment throughout the year. Despite this, equity markets are set to close out the year in the green, supported by strong fundamentals and optimism around the benefits of AI adoption across businesses.
Returns were driven by both multiple expansion and earnings growth, with the latter doing more of the heavy lifting over the year. Emerging markets (EM) was the standout performer of 2025, benefiting from multiple tailwinds including strong earnings growth, weaker US$ and improved regulatory conditions for investors.
Our local benchmark lagged global peers throughout the year, as valuations across index-heavy major banks fizzled and expectations of further interest rate cuts dwindled towards the end of the year.
2026 Market Outlook – From Acceleration to Precision. GlobalX
This year’s outlook is structured around four key themes, reflecting a shift from acceleration to precision, and guiding the journey ahead:
- Formation Lap: From Tightening to Renewal. Set your starting position as we enter a phase of easing and renewal across global inflation and growth.
- Strategy in Changing Conditions: Policy, Politics and the Debasement Trade. Fiscal and political shifts continue. We explore how investors can adapt portfolios as macro conditions evolve.
- Pit Stop: From Peak Investment to Payback Pressure. Recalibration from ‘spend now’ to ‘earn back’ – where to add, trim and reposition for durability.
- Managing the Final Turn: The Search for the Next Bottleneck. Navigating pressure points that define the next phase. Focusing on seizing opportunities while maintaining careful risk management.
Macquarie’s 2026 economic outlook
Hear from Ric Deverell, Macquarie Group’s Chief Economist, as he presents the Australian economic outlook for 2026, offering insights into how the Australian economy is positioned for the year ahead amid ongoing global challenges. From interest rates to employment trends, Macquarie explore the key issues shaping the landscape for Australian businesses.